DraftKings is one of the most popular daily fantasy sports sites, allowing users to win real money prizes. Players can enter contests across major professional and college sports, drafting teams under a salary cap and winning based on their team’s performance. But is it really possible to consistently win money on DraftKings?
How does DraftKings work?
DraftKings operates contests across NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, PGA, NASCAR, CFL, WNBA, AFL and NCAA football and basketball. Users are given a fantasy salary cap to “draft” players to fill roster spots in contests.
There are different contest formats, including:
- Guaranteed prize pools – Games where the prize money is guaranteed regardless of number of entrants.
- Tournaments – Large contest pools where only players with top scores win money. These have big prizes but are harder to win.
- Head-to-Head – Direct matchups against one opponent.
- 50/50s – Top half of field doubles their entry fee.
After contests start, scoring is based on your players’ real-life stats. In football, points are earned for passing, rushing, receiving and defensive yards and touchdowns. Basketball contests include points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. Contests can range from a few dollars to enter up to $10,000 or more for high stakes games.
Is it possible to consistently win money on DraftKings?
While luck is certainly involved, there are many players who manage to win consistently on DraftKings. However, it requires skill, research and often high bankrolls to absorb variance and downswings.
According to DraftKings, over 90% of profits are won by just 1.3% of players. So while it’s possible for anyone to win in the short term, only a small percentage demonstrate an ability to win consistently.
Some keys for giving yourself the best chance to win include:
- Using accurate projections – Developing or purchasing high-quality player projection models to estimate likely outcomes.
- Finding value plays – Comparing projections to salaries to identify players priced lower than their expected output.
- Constructing optimal lineups – Using statistical analysis to build balanced, high-scoring lineups under the salary cap.
- Maximizing bankroll – Playing appropriate stakes relative to your bankroll size to withstand variance.
- Entering multiple lineups – Creating diverse lineups to give yourself multiple chances to win.
- Leveraging late swapping – Replacing non-starting or injured players just before lock to gain an advantage.
While casual players may win here and there, only by combining skill in lineup construction with proper bankroll management do some emerge as consistent winners.
What skills are required to win consistently?
Here are some of the key skills displayed by the top DraftKings players:
Advanced stats and projections
Winning players have researched and modeled which stats have the highest correlations with fantasy scoring for each sport. They use this knowledge to build accurate projections for each player in their player pool.
For example, in NBA contests, factors like usage rate, rebound rate and assist to turnover ratio have proven to be predictive of fantasy performance. Top players analyze trends over recent games and seasons to get as accurate as possible with their projections.
Finding value
Once projections are generated, winners compare those projections to DraftKings’ listed salaries to spot players priced lower than their expected fantasy output. Finding players projected for more points than their cost enables fitting studs under the salary cap.
Values are discovered by calculating a player’s projected point per salary dollar ratio. Top fantasy players are constantly running models leading up to games to identify the best values.
Game theory and ownership projections
In large tournaments, it’s important to differentiate your lineup from opponents by having players with lower projected ownership. Winning players use complex game theory models to predict ownership levels on key players.
By fading extremely chalky plays and pivoting to lower-owned bargains, skilled players increase their chances of separating from the pack and taking down a tournament.
Advanced lineup construction
To maximize odds, winning players don’t just jam their lineups with the top projected plays. They use optimization algorithms to build balanced rosters with optimal combinations of studs and values while hitting positional minimums.
Programs can output hundreds of lineup possibilities that are precisely calibrated to provide the highest possible projected scores under the salary constraints.
Leveraging multi-entry
Top players don’t rely on just one lineup to win. They build player pools and crunch hundreds of lineups to give them lottery tickets to take down a tournament. This diversifies risk and massively increases win probability.
Scripting programs allow players to generate and import mass multi-entry lineups in minutes based on their desired build strategies.
Minimizing variance through bankroll management
Even the best players face downswings due to sheer luck. Savvy players manage risk by playing appropriate stakes for their bankroll size. Experts suggest having at least 100 lineups in smaller contests before playing large tournaments.
By slowly moving up in stakes as their bankroll grows, top players protect themselves from going broke during inevitable cold streaks when luck goes against them.
What tools do professionals use?
Here are some of the tools and services used by professional DraftKings players:
Projection and lineup optimization systems
Services like Rotogrinders and Daily Roto offer projection models and lineup optimizers personalized for DraftKings scoring. Optimizers output hundreds of precise lineups tailored to that slate’s player pool.
Game theory and ownership projections
Site like Fantasy Cruncher and Fantasy Labs use algorithms to predict likely ownership percentages for DraftKings contests. This allows players to strategically fade chalky plays in their lineups.
Multi-entry scripts
Players use scripting programs like Swish Analytics and Lineup Lab to quickly generate and import hundreds of entries in bulk. This maximizes exposure to player pools across contests.
Late swap tools
Rotogrinders and Fantasy Labs offer late swap tools to let users mass edit and re-upload lineups to replace non-starters just before lock. This provides a significant edge in NBA contests in particular.
Bankroll trackers
Sites like DFS Nerd allow players to analyze their historical results and optimize their staking plan. This improves bankroll management to maximize long-term profits.
What bankroll is required to win consistently?
Due to variance, even the top players can go on bad losing streaks at times. Most pros suggest having at least a $5,000 bankroll before playing DFS full time.
Here are some bankroll guidelines from expert players for your roster budget:
| Contest Buy-in | Suggested Bankroll Size |
|---|---|
| $1 contest | $200 bankroll minimum |
| $5 contest | $500 bankroll minimum |
| $10 contest | $800 bankroll minimum |
| $25 contest | $2,000 bankroll minimum |
| $50 contest | $4,000 bankroll minimum |
| $100 contest | $6,000+ bankroll minimum |
So to play a mix of $1 to $100 entry fee contests, you would want $5,000 or more on DraftKings to safely absorb variance. With less than that, it becomes very high risk.
What is the ROI of top DraftKings players?
Return on investment (ROI) measures how much profit you earn per dollar invested. According to tracking service DFS Nerd, here are typical ROIs for different skill levels:
| Player Skill Level | Estimated ROI |
|---|---|
| Losign player | -100% (loses entire bankroll) |
| Average player | -5% to -10% ROI (slowly loses money) |
| Good player | 0% to 5% ROI (small profits) |
| Successful player | 10% to 20% ROI |
| Expert professional | 20%+ ROI |
The very best players can achieve ROIs of 20% to 30% or more over a season, but need large bankrolls to maximize their edge. For most, a 10% to 15% ROI is a more realistic goal.
Do you have to be highly skilled to profit?
While a few big scores can make a newer player feel it’s easy, long-term profits require developing real skill. Here is the estimated time commitment needed to reach different skill levels:
| Skill Level | Estimated Time Investment |
|---|---|
| Casual player | 1-2 hours per week |
| Knowledgeable player | 5-10 hours per week |
| Skilled player | 15-25 hours per week |
| Expert player | 30+ hours per week |
Becoming an expert capable of big profits requires treating DFS as a job and immersing yourself in stat analysis and game theory.
What level of profit can you expect as a casual player?
For a newer player putting in just a couple hours a week, here are reasonable profit expectations:
- First month – Will likely lose entire deposit learning the ropes
- First 6 months – Can expect to lose around 50% of bankroll while improving
- First year – Can possibly break even by end of year with some luck
- Second year – Can potentially earn small profits of 5% to 10% ROI
Without significantly more time invested in the game, profits will likely just cover entertainment costs rather than make for a serious income stream.
Can you make a living playing DFS?
Here are the estimated yearly profits possible at different skill levels:
| Player Type | Estimated Annual Profits |
|---|---|
| Casual player | $0 to $2,000 |
| Skilled player | $10,000 to $50,000 |
| Expert player | $100,000+ |
While some supplement their income with smaller profits, it takes being an elite professional to make DFS a lucrative full-time career. That requires immense skill and dedication over many years.
However, those at the very top levels can make salaries well into the six figures. The 2017 DraftKings World Fantasy Football Championship had a $2 million top prize.
Do professionals win all the money?
With so much know-how and high volume advantages, some estimate that over 90% of DFS profits are won by professional players. However, casual players can still find soft contests.
According to RotoGrinders, here are estimated winning percentages by contest type:
| Contest Type | Pros’ Share of Winnings |
|---|---|
| Small contests (under $10 entry) | 70% pros / 30% casuals |
| Large guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) | 95%+ pros |
| Satellite qualifiers | 90% pros |
| Head-to-head matches | 60% pros / 40% casuals |
| Big tournaments | 99% pros |
Casual players tend to overestimate their chances in huge tournaments. But the pros use every edge to dominate the prizes. Newer players should stick with smaller contests.
How to increase your chances as a casual player
Here are some tips for casual players to improve win rates:
- Play smaller buy-in contests under $10
- Focus on head-to-head and 50/50 formats rather than large GPPs
- Enter contests with under 500 entrants
- Avoid contests on the biggest slates like Sundays
- Use basic projections and rankings available online
- Learn proper bankroll management
Casual players dreaming of huge scores need to be realistic about their chances versus sophisticated pros. But using some strategy and picking good spots can lead to modest profits.
Conclusion
While winning consistently at DraftKings takes immense skill and dedication, recreational players can still profit with the right approach. Using basic tools and avoiding pros’ most lucrative contests can lead to earnings covering entertainment costs.
But casual players should not expect to match the 20%+ ROIs of top experts who devote full work weeks to DFS. Building a long-term career requires treating it like a job and being able to withstand major swings.
With knowledge of contests and bankroll management, a newer player can grow profits over several years. But it takes immense expertise in stats, game theory and lineup building to join the ranks of consistent winners.