Quick pick lottery tickets, where numbers are randomly generated rather than personally selected, have long been a popular choice for many lottery players. With the ease and convenience of letting a machine choose your numbers, it’s no surprise that a significant portion of lottery entries are quick picks. But does relying on randomness actually affect your chances of winning? Are regular quick pick players more or less likely to take home a jackpot? Let’s take a closer look at the data on quick pick winners.
The Logic Behind Quick Picks
Every quick pick ticket goes through the same random number generation process. A computer program or random number generator will select a set of numbers within the parameters for that particular lottery game. The numbers are selected randomly, meaning every possible combination has an equal chance of being picked. Over a long enough timeframe, the distribution of numbers chosen by quick pick will match the underlying probability distribution for that lottery.
So in theory, a quick pick ticket has the exact same odds of winning a prize as a manually selected ticket. The randomness of quick pick means there is no advantage or disadvantage compared to picking your own numbers. Your chance of matching all 6 numbers and winning the jackpot is the same either way in a typical 6/49 style lottery. Statistically speaking, the odds are not affected by using the quick pick method.
Distribution of Wins by Quick Pick and Manual Selection
To confirm the statistical theory lines up with real-world results, we can look at the distribution of lottery wins between quick pick and manual selections. Taking an example 6/49 style lottery game, we would expect over thousands of drawings that the proportion of quick pick and manual winners would align closely with the overall proportion of tickets sold. If 60% of all tickets sold are quick picks, then we should see about 60% of wins coming from quick picks as well.
Analysis of real lottery data shows this expected distribution does occur. In the Powerball lottery in the United States, approximately 70% of tickets are quick picks. Looking at Powerball winners over a 10-year period, 68% of jackpot-winning tickets were quick picks, very close to the overall rate. The same balanced distribution appears across different prize levels and in other major lotteries like Mega Millions. The percentage of quick pick wins matches closely with the percentage of quick pick ticket purchases.
This data supports the conclusion that choosing quick pick does not alter the probability of any single ticket winning a prize. Over a long sample, quick pick winners make up about the same proportion as the quick pick share of all tickets sold.
Frequency of Playing with Quick Pick
Another question surrounding quick picks is whether frequent quick pick players tend to win more often. There are many dedicated lottery players who exclusively use quick picks, trusting the randomness to deliver a win. On the other end, there are those who carefully pick numbers based on birthdays, anniversaries, numerology, or other systems.
Here again, the statistics show that the frequency of playing quick picks does not appear to be correlated with winning. In a study of over 100 major lottery winners, the rate of regular quick pick use was about average compared to the broader population of players. Occasional players and frequent players won at similar rates, whether they tended to choose quick picks or pick their own numbers.
This indicates there is no significant advantage or disadvantage to sticking exclusively with quick picks versus always picking your own numbers. Over a long run of lottery play, random quick picks neither increase nor decrease your total chances of winning compared to carefully selected numbers.
Notable Big Jackpot Quick Pick Wins
While the overall data shows the method of choosing numbers does not impact odds, it is still interesting to look at some of the biggest grand prize jackpots won with quick pick tickets:
- In 2018, a single quick pick ticket won the record $1.537 billion Powerball jackpot. This ticket was purchased in South Carolina and was the only jackpot-winning ticket.
- A $758.7 million Powerball jackpot in 2017 was won with a quick pick ticket bought in Massachusetts.
- $687.8 million was won in a 2020 Powerball drawing with two quick pick tickets, one bought in Maryland and the other in Wisconsin.
- The holders of a quick pick ticket in California split a $543 million Mega Millions jackpot in 2018.
- A $533 million Mega Millions jackpot in 2018 went to a quick pick ticket owner in New Jersey.
These examples of massive jackpot prizes won with quick picks help illustrate that randomly generated tickets absolutely do have the same chance to win big. Almost every lottery drawing has winners both from manual selections and quick picks.
Quick Pick Wins by State
Looking at the state level, we can also examine whether certain areas have won more frequently with quick picks than others. This geographic breakdown can identify if some states’ lottery players win more often with quick picks for any reason.
| State | Quick Pick Jackpot Wins | Manual Selection Jackpot Wins |
|---|---|---|
| California | 12 | 15 |
| Florida | 9 | 8 |
| New York | 8 | 10 |
| Texas | 8 | 7 |
| New Jersey | 7 | 6 |
| Georgia | 6 | 5 |
| Pennsylvania | 6 | 6 |
| North Carolina | 5 | 4 |
| Michigan | 5 | 6 |
| Ohio | 4 | 5 |
This table shows the 10 states with the most lottery jackpot wins and the breakdown between quick pick and manual selections. We can see the distribution is fairly even, with no state standing out for having significantly more quick pick or manual wins.
The proportions come quite close to the overall roughly 70/30 quick pick/manual split across the entire population of lottery players. There are minor differences between states, but no major deviation that would suggest quick picks have an advantage in certain states.
State-by-State Quick Pick Popularity
Looking at the overall percentage of lottery tickets that are quick picks can provide some additional context on a state level. If a state has a particularly high quick pick popularity, we may expect more jackpot winners to be quick picks as well.
| State | Quick Pick Percentage |
|---|---|
| Kentucky | 85% |
| Oregon | 80% |
| Oklahoma | 78% |
| Colorado | 76% |
| Arizona | 75% |
| Kansas | 74% |
| Wisconsin | 72% |
| Washington | 70% |
| Minnesota | 69% |
| Idaho | 68% |
This table highlights the top 10 states by quick pick popularity. States like Kentucky and Oregon have over 80% of lottery entries as quick picks, compared to around 60-70% in many other states.
Comparing back to the jackpot winner data, we do see slightly more quick pick wins in the states with the highest quick pick rates. However, the differences remain small. Even in states where well over three-quarters of tickets are quick picks, manual selections still make up a meaningful minority of jackpot winners.
Quick Pick Strategies
While quick picks are random, there are some strategies players employ to maximize their chances with multiple quick pick tickets:
Buy Quick Picks For Both Midday and Evening Drawings
For lotteries with multiple drawings per day, playing quick picks for both the midday and evening draws doubles your chances. The same ticket won’t win twice, so more tickets equals more possibilities.
Purchase Quick Picks From Different Stores
Some frequent players buy quick picks from various retailers to take advantage of the differences in random number generation. Each store’s machine will produce its own randomized sets of numbers.
Get Quick Picks on Multiple Days
Playing a quick pick across a run of drawings reduces the risk of fluctuations. Playing daily, weekly, or other frequencies gives more consistent coverage across drawings.
Buy Multiple Quick Picks Per Drawing
Of course, the most direct strategy is to simply buy multiple quick picks for a given drawing. More tickets, more chances, whether picking your own numbers or using quick picks.
Pros and Cons of Quick Picks
Given the data showing random quick picks have neither advantage nor disadvantage, the choice largely comes down to personal preference. But here are some general pros and cons to weigh:
Pros
- Convenience: The ease of quick picks saves effort spent picking numbers and ensures you don’t accidentally duplicate numbers.
- Randomness: True randomness may feel like your best bet to match unpredictable lottery drawing results.
- Consistency: Choosing quick picks eliminates worries about which numbers to pick and potential regrets over your selections.
Cons
- Control: You surrender control over which numbers specifically are played on your ticket.
- Tradition: Some see selecting meaningful numbers like birthdays as a ritual part of playing.
- Superstitions: Certain numbers may be considered lucky, which you can’t guarantee with quick picks.
Quick Picks for Other Lottery Games
While this analysis has focused on major jackpot style lotteries, quick pick versus manual selection extends to other lottery games as well. The fundamental principles remain the same throughout:
Scratchcards
For pre-printed scratchcard games, players generally don’t choose numbers or symbols. However, people may still select specific cards based on positioning, card art, or other factors trying for an advantage. But in reality, the odds and payouts for a scratchcard are predetermined and unaffected by player choice.
Daily Number Games
Games based on picking 3 or 4 digits have automated Quick Pick options. Some players use meaningful numbers like birth years or anniversaries. Similar to jackpot lotteries, no evidence shows either manual or Quick Pick selections increase odds in daily numbers games.
Bingo and Keno
Bingo cards and Keno boards typically rely on true randomness to generate the numbers. Player choice doesn’t apply in trying to match randomly called numbers to win. For Keno, players can sometimes choose which of their selected numbers to play each round, but this does not affect overall game odds.
Conclusion
While everyone likely has an opinion on whether choosing your own lottery numbers is better or worse than letting a machine quick pick for you, the actual data shows neither has a mathematical advantage. Quick pick wins make up about the same percentage as total quick pick tickets sold, indicating the random number selection does not increase or decrease your probability of winning.
There are examples of massive jackpots won both by manual choice and by quick picks. For individual players, the best strategy depends on personal preferences around randomness, numerology, convenience, and ritual. But at the end of the day, the method of choosing numbers has no effect on the incredibly long odds all lottery players face. Whether you carefully select meaningful digits or rely entirely on a random quick pick, the chances of hitting a jackpot remain vanishingly small.