The United States currently has an all-volunteer military, meaning there is no military draft in place. However, the Selective Service System still exists and requires all male U.S. citizens and immigrants between the ages of 18 and 25 to register in case a draft is enacted in the future. So if there was a draft today, who would be called up for military service?
Who is Eligible for the Draft
According to current Selective Service System requirements, all male U.S. citizens and male immigrants between the ages of 18 and 25 are required to register for the draft. This includes:
- U.S. born citizens
- Naturalized citizens
- Dual nationals
- Permanent residents
- Refugees
- Undocumented immigrants
There are some exceptions. Those who are exempt from draft registration include:
- Non-immigrant aliens
- Those confined to prison, mental institutions, or hospitals
- Those who are already serving in the military
- Disabled individuals who are incapable of serving
So in summary, the majority of young men ages 18-25 would be eligible for the draft if it was reinstated today.
How Many People Would Be Eligible
To estimate how many people would be eligible for a potential draft today, we can look at recent population statistics.
As of the 2020 Census, there were around 16.5 million males between the ages of 18-25 living in the United States. However, some of those individuals would be exempt based on the criteria above.
Approximately 2.3 million males in that age group are currently serving in the military, so they would not need to be drafted. Around 2.1 million are incarcerated, hospitalized, or institutionalized. And close to 550,000 are noncitizen immigrants who would be exempt.
Accounting for those groups, there are approximately 11.5 million males aged 18-25 who could be eligible for the draft today if it was reinstated.
Most Vulnerable Age Groups
Those most at risk of being drafted would be men ages 20-25. Here is a breakdown of how many men there are in each 1-year age group within that range, based on 2020 Census data:
| Age | Male Population |
|---|---|
| 18 year olds | 2 million |
| 19 year olds | 2 million |
| 20 year olds | 2 million |
| 21 year olds | 2.1 million |
| 22 year olds | 2.1 million |
| 23 year olds | 2.2 million |
| 24 year olds | 2.1 million |
| 25 year olds | 2 million |
As the table shows, men ages 20-22 would likely make up the bulk of any draft today, as they represent the peak male population between 18 and 25. There are over 6 million men just within those three ages who would be vulnerable to being drafted.
Impact on College Students
Many young men in the draft age range are enrolled in college. In 2020, there were around 5.7 million male undergraduate college students between the ages of 18 and 24.
If there was a draft, most college students would not be exempt or deferred from service. Deferments for college students were eliminated back in the 1970s.
The only exceptions today are for certain seminary or divinity students preparing to become ministers, along with high school students who get drafted before graduation.
Otherwise, the majority of college men today would have to report for duty if drafted. This could impact over 5 million current male undergraduate students.
Possible Exemptions
As with past drafts, there would likely be some exemptions possible outside of the standard ones for non-citizens, incarcerated men, and those with disabilities.
During the Vietnam War, deferments from the draft were granted for:
- College students (reversed in 1971)
- Married men with children
- Men whose families would suffer undue hardship from their absence
- Men who were considered morally opposed or conscientious objectors
If a draft was held today, similar deferments could potentially be made for:
- Fathers with primary custody of children
- Men whose families depend on their income to survive
- Conscientious objectors with firm moral, ethical, or religious opposition to all combat service
However, these deferments likely would not apply to as many people today compared to during Vietnam when the average marrying age was younger. Very few draft-age men today are supporting families. And while conscientious objection deferments exist, relatively few eligible men pursue this status.
Priority Groups for Drafting
If a draft was implemented today, eligible men age 20-25 would probably be called to serve based on a lottery system, just like during the Vietnam era.
Birthdays would be randomly assigned lottery numbers which would determine the order of who gets drafted first. Those with the lowest numbers would be drafted first.
Beyond the lottery, priority groups who might get called before others could include:
- Men who receive college deferments but do not maintain a full course load – these individuals would go back into the selection pool and be at high risk for getting drafted.
- Men with particular military specialist backgrounds – for example, someone who is a computer engineer or speaks a strategic foreign language may get drafted earlier to fill a specialty position.
- Inactive Reserve members – these individuals already have military experience and training.
- Children of service members who were killed in combat – these individuals often voluntarily enter service despite being exempt.
The military has wide discretion to call up specialist groups or individuals with valuable skills and backgrounds first based on current needs. But for the majority, the lottery system would determine the general order of who gets drafted.
Impact on Occupations
A draft would impact certain industries and occupations more than others that employ high percentages of eligible young men.
Sectors With Highest Share of Male Employees Ages 18-25:
- Food service and hospitality – 27% of workforce is male ages 18-25
- Construction – 26% of workforce is male ages 18-25
- Retail – 24% of workforce is male ages 18-25
- Landscaping services – 23% of workforce is male ages 18-25
A draft could drive major staffing shortages in these industries which already rely heavily on younger male employees. Restaurant chains, construction companies, retailers, and landscapers may struggle to replace workers who get called to military service.
Other occupations with high percentages of eligible young men that could be impacted include delivery drivers, manual laborers, waiters, cooks, and sales clerks. Businesses and roles reliant on this key demographic of employees would need to increase hiring and recruitment if they lose staff to the draft.
Possible Exemptions for Certain Occupations
To avoid destabilizing key sectors of the economy, exemptions might be made for certain occupations if a draft was implemented today.
During Vietnam, deferments were granted for individuals working in sectors like defense, technology, and some government roles. Similar occupational exemptions could be made for:
- Healthcare – doctors, nurses, EMTs
- Emergency services – police, firefighters
- Infrastructure/utilities – electricians, power plant operators
- Food production and agriculture – farmers, meat packers
- Logistics/transportation – truck drivers, railroad operators
Workers serving in critical infrastructure roles or businesses essential to public health and safety may receive deferments to avoid disruptions. The government would need to balance military staffing needs with ensuring stability on the home front.
Gender and Racial Impacts
Since the draft today would only apply to men, it would disproportionately impact males age 18-25.
Racial demographics would also be impacted. Here is the gender and racial breakdown of 18-25 year olds, based on 2020 Census data:
| Race | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| White | 10.2 million | 9.8 million |
| Hispanic | 4.1 million | 4 million |
| Black | 1.8 million | 1.9 million |
| Asian | 830,000 | 780,000 |
| Other | 580,000 | 540,000 |
In terms of percentages:
- White males make up 62% of those eligible
- Hispanic males make up 25% of those eligible
- Black males make up 11% of those eligible
- Asian males make up 5% of those eligible
- Other races make up 4% of those eligible
So while men of all races would be impacted, a draft would affect the Hispanic population at slightly higher rates based on demographic makeup, followed by whites, blacks, Asians, and other minority groups. The gender inequality is clear – all young women would be exempt, while all young men would be vulnerable.
Possible Recourse for Drafted Individuals
There are limited options available to men who want to avoid being drafted or to reverse their selection:
- Claim exempt status – File for one of the exempt categories like non-citizen or sole family provider.
- Seek deferment – Request an occupational deferment or conscientious objector status.
- Claim disability – Seek a medical review to prove physical or mental disqualification.
- Flee the country – Men who left the U.S. permanently could avoid the draft.
- Refuse induction – Draftees who skipped mandatory induction faced up to 5 years in prison and fines during Vietnam.
Once selected via lottery, there are few legal options to avoid service outside of the limited deferments/exemptions. Failure to report when drafted would lead to criminal prosecution in most cases.
Likelihood of Modern Military Draft
While the legal framework for conscription still exists, the chances of a draft in today’s military climate are relatively low compared to during prolonged wars like Vietnam. Reasons a draft is unlikely include:
- The U.S. military has been an all-volunteer force since 1973.
- Current active-duty troop levels are sufficient to meet objectives.
- Wars are more limited in scope compared to past drafts eras.
- The military relies more on technology than large numbers of foot soldiers.
- A draft would be very unpopular politically and publically.
However, if a major ground war did break out that required massive military mobilization akin to World War 2 or Vietnam, the Selective Service draft procedures could be invoked rapidly. All young men would need to be aware of the system and their obligation to serve if called upon. But for now, a draft seems improbable given modern military strategic needs and approaches.
Conclusion
While there is currently no conscription, all young men today still face the possibility of being drafted if the need arose in the future. Around 11.5 million males age 18-25 would be eligible if a draft was held now. Men ages 20-22 would be most at risk of selection first. A draft would heavily impact younger male workers in industries like food service and construction. Very few deferments exist compared to past wars. Recourse is limited once you are selected by lottery number. However, the all-volunteer forces have negated the need for a draft barring a major conventional ground war. While the infrastructure remains in place, compelled conscription into the military seems unnecessary based on the current global climate and strategic military objectives. The U.S. has relied entirely on voluntary service members for nearly 50 years now, and that approach appears sufficient absent extreme circumstances we have yet to encounter.